Axioma: Just Ask Donald Trump

To paraphrase Mark Twain, the two most important days in an investor’s life are the day he invests and the day he finds out he was right (or wrong). Every day in between seems to belong to Donald Trump. Welcome to the high-stakes world of binary geopolitics and the revolving door of “I love you, Me neither” meetings between Trump and pretty much any other heads of state.

Investing is forecasting, as we’ve said many times before. In the normal course of business, this means forecasting three

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